How do we craft a winning strategy when the future looks so murky? Many leaders are wrestling with that question and are justifiably uneasy about planning for the future with COVID-19 cases on the rise. The temptation in uncertain times is to adopt a strategy that lives in the short term. As one leader expressed, “It feels reckless and borderline negligent to look too far ahead. We have our hands full just dealing with the present.”
Maybe you can relate? Many organizations have put most, if not all, their attention on surviving immediate threats. But we cannot let immediacy undermine long-term strategic thinking, even in moments like we’re experiencing now.
Here’s why—organizations that operate with a long-term mindset have consistently outperformed their peers for decades. That means if we’re not spending at least some of our time thinking about our future, and connecting our current actions with it, we’re probably missing opportunities to gain market share or better serve our community.
Please don’t misunderstand, we’re not talking about ignoring the present challenges. We’re suggesting that organizations would do well to build flexible bridges between their operations in the present and their desired future.
One of the ways a team can connect those dots is through a process called scenario planning. Scenario planning may sound complicated, but any team can do it, and they will uncover value that is hard to quantify. If you’re interested in making the most of this moment to create a better future, here’s how it could look for you.
Invite the Right People to Participate
One of the goals of scenario planning is to clarify and challenge the prevailing thoughts of how our world works. That means a scenario planning conversation will need to involve people who have significantly different roles, points of view, and experiences. We’re looking for people who can think openly and critically and can stomach a little tension in the room.
Imagine Different Futures
Terence McKenna once said, “The imagination is the golden pathway to everywhere.” Push yourself and your team to imagine what the future will look like in a year, three years, or even five years. Consider numerous scenarios, including:
- What if nothing changes?
- What if a new, disruptive force changes everything?
- What if a historical cycle repeats itself?
For each scenario, consider the implications and outgrowths of this future state. This takes a high degree of imagination combined with the ability to distinguish between scenarios that border on the implausible and those that fall off the cliff! You may consider engaging a facilitator to ensure all team members can participate and to help prime future possibilities while maintaining guardrails of reality.
Identify Strategies that will be Beneficial in Multiple Future Scenarios
Form teams to inhabit each of your envisioned futures and give them this challenge: what can we do now that will help us operate better in that future state? Create an environment in which all participants can offer suggestions without hesitation. After the groups identify strategies that connect today’s world to the future, bring everyone together to compare notes. What’s common among the suggested strategies? Are their investments that would make sense across a range of futures?
Implement those Strategies
This is painfully obvious to suggest, but it is the place where most organizations fail. Scenario planning isn’t resource-intensive, but executing the identified strategies requires commitment. Realistically, these exercises will not drive every initiative, but they can be valuable in two ways. First, they can provide participants with shared experience and language to talk about the future. Second, the exercises can build buy-in for a potential course of action in the future.
Ingrain the Process
Preparing for the future demands constant reappraisal. Only by institutionalizing the creative process can organizations establish a continual give-and-take between the present and the future. In the long run, you’ll reap the most significant value from scenario planning by developing an iterative cycle—that is, a process that repeatedly points your organization toward the future while staying connected to the present, and vice versa. This ability will allow you to flourish under the best of conditions—and survive under the worst—adjusting and updating as the future becomes a reality.
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Final Thought: Leaders will be judged not only by what they do today but by how well they chart a course into the future.
